Reducing wildfire risk

There are things conservationists can do make our land more resilient to fire risk in the future. By Caroline Wood

As the death toll rose from the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles in January, local experts warned that rising temperatures will see some parts of New Zealand becoming hotter and drier. 

“We really need to be more prepared for wildfires in the future,” researcher Dr Nicole Day, of Victoria University, told RNZ in January. 

“If you think of Otago, it is full of those beautiful iconic tussock grasslands, and those catch fire really quickly and will help a fire travel really fast.” 

Climate change modelling suggests that, over the next few decades, New Zealand will have a climate that is similar to parts of Australia. 

As greenhouse gases build up in the atmosphere, we will see the emergence of a new kind of more severe, or possibly extreme, wildfire climate this century, (see box below). The highest risk areas are Mackenzie Country, Upper Otago, and Marlborough. 

We asked Forest & Bird’s climate advocate Scott Burnett for help in understanding the drivers and solutions to climate driven wildfires.

SCOTT, WHAT CAN CONSERVATIONISTS DO TO REDUCE THE RISK AND SEVERITY OF WILDFIRES IN AOTEAROA?

Conservationists can play a role by participating in native habitat restoration and advocating for land management practices that enhance climate resilience. Specific actions include:

• Restoring native vegetation: Native ecosystems are generally more fire-resistant than exotic monocultures. Forest & Bird emphasises the importance of replacing fire-prone exotic species such as pine with indigenous forests, which reduce fire risk and improve biodiversity and carbon sequestration. This is particularly important on the more drought-prone east coast of the country.
• Integrating nature-based solutions: By restoring wetlands and other ecosystems, conservationists can create natural firebreaks and buffer zones, reducing the likelihood and impact of wildfires.
• Public education and advocacy: Conservationists can raise awareness about the link between climate change, biodiversity loss, and increasing wildfire risks, advocating for systemic changes that address these interconnected issues.

Forest & Bird volunteers grow thousands of native plants and gift them to local conservation groups. Pictured is Lower Hutt’s nursery north of Wellington. Image: Caroline Wood

WHAT IS FOREST & BIRD DOING TO REDUCE THE RISK OF DEVASTATING BUSHFIRES?

We are putting pressure on national and local government to take urgent action to reduce planet heating emissions and work with nature to help our communities become more resilient to wildfires and other extreme weather-related impacts.

Our climate advocacy directly addresses the underlying causes of bushfires through a multi-pronged approach with four key “asks”. 

• Gross emissions reductions: Forest & Bird advocates for a shift from reliance on fossil fuels and high-emission activities to sustainable energy and agricultural practices. By addressing climate change at its source, we aim to mitigate the extreme weather patterns that exacerbate wildfire risks.
• Reforming the Emissions Trading Scheme: The Society wants to see reforms that discourage exotic afforestation and instead prioritise indigenous planting. This would reduce the prevalence of fireprone exotic trees like pine, which were significant contributors to the Craigieburn fires.
• Nature-based solutions: By protecting and restoring native forests and wetlands, Forest & Bird promotes ecosystems that naturally regulate fire risks while enhancing biodiversity and community resilience.
• Systemic integration of climate and biodiversity goals: Forest & Bird emphasises the need to embed both climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation into national policies. This would ensure that landuse decisions prioritise the need to reduce fire risks and enhance long-term ecosystem health.

By championing these strategies, Forest & Bird’s climate advocacy addresses not only the immediate risks but also the systemic drivers of wildfires, ensuring a more resilient and biodiverse landscape for future generations.

You can help make our natural world a safer place for your children and grandchildren by making a donation to support Forest & Bird’s climate advocacy.

Aftermath of a wildfire Craigieburn, Canterbury, December 2024. Image: Louise Porteous

SOUNDING THE ALARM

Wildfires are a highly variable natural phenomenon, but climate change is already making wildfire conditions measurably worse around the world. Detailed knowledge about Aotearoa New Zealand’s future wildfire climate is limited, but we do know lowering emissions would reduce the risk. A 2022 study combined weather observations with regional climate model projections to assess the country’s future wildfire climate. 

“We find that, in the 21st-century, the emergence of a new – more severe – wildfire climate will occur. Detailed analysis of observed and simulated wildfire weather finds that ‘very extreme’ wildfire weather conditions matching the levels observed in Australia’s 2019/2020 ‘Black Summer’ bushfires are possible in regions formerly unaffected. 

“While the extent of emergence is dependent on future emissions, the frequency of very extreme conditions for the areas affected can occur at any time and is independent of projected 21st-century climate changes. Our findings have significant implications for many rural fire authorities, forest managers and investors, and climate mitigation and afforestation programmes.”

Excerpted from Aotearoa New Zealand’s 21st Century Wildfire Climate by N Melia, S Dean, HG Pearce, L Harrington, DJ Frame, T Strand. First published 28 May 2022. Read the full study at https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002853